Large Rent Increases Predicted

[quantus]

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_ ... urce=email

"it feels a lot like 1992, when we were coming out of a deep recession "... and we ended up seeing double-digit rent increases

Multifamily developers broke ground on just 114,000 units in the United States in 2010, a figure so low that it wouldn't account for all the multifamily units lost last year to the wrecking ball or natural disasters. Although expected to grow to 133,000 starts in 2011, that number would leave a substantial deficit.

I wonder if these dudes considered the fact that there's gonna be a lot of foreclosed homes on the market soon to absorb some of that demand this time?

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_ ... urce=email

"2011 is going to be the peak," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc. The firm predicts 1.2 million homes will be repossessed this year.

This kinda makes sense since 2006 was roughly the peak of 5/1 ARMs being issued... Coincidence? Some would say, no, but they're probably the ones that sold or are selling those types of loans.

[George]

"I've never seen so much pent-up demand," said Jay Jacobson, a partner in the Boca Raton, Fla., office of Wood Partners, a national development and investment firm.

How can you have pent-up demand for apartments? The presumable source of new demand is people losing their houses. They're not holding back because of lack of supply.

In any case, I suspect the total units available for rent is actually much higher, since so many people have decided to rent out the condos and single-family homes they can't sell.

I think journalists should be required to follow every bullish prediction from a realtor with a similar prediction from 2008. That way, every time you see "2011 is going to be the peak", you'd also get to see "Prices will rebound completely in the latter half of 2008, and go back to appreciating at >10% per year afterward".