2004 Presidential election

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Postby Peijen » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:30 pm

woo I might actually make a difference. GoGo Kerry.

If Kerry did well tonight it would probably be over for Bush. No WMD, bombing of hotel in Iraq, less than expected job gain, higher oil price.

The only problem is that Bush is quite strong in the states he held, while Kerry's lead is not as strong in most states. In fact I think Kerry's weakly and barely favorable states has increased and strongly favorable states decreased. Also Maine and Nebraska are not all or nothing state and that work againt Kerry at this point.
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Postby quantus » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:48 pm

Dammit, Neal needs to get people in NM to vote for Kerry. If PA switches to Bush, it could quickly become Bush's election too :(

Oh, you should always link to today's date at electorvote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.html
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Postby quantus » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:58 pm

I find it hard to believe that 5% of the people in AK, MI and WI changed their votes.

Dave needs to somehow persuade people in FL to vote for Kerry as well. He should also tell us if they mess up the ballot again.

Anyone hear about how MI screwed up their absentee ballot? They needed to reissue it.

Editted fix for Dave being in FL, not Peijen
Last edited by quantus on Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Jonathan » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:09 pm

FL is Dave's job.

Numerous people have attacked the pollsters for their "likely voter" methodology, particularly Gallup. They claim that Gallup's method of weeding out unlikely voters is biased and evil and bad and makes your hair fall out. Or something to that effect.

Anyway, when there are large sudden swings, usually it's due to changes in the likely voter status of certain classes of respondents. If we only looked at registered voters, the numbers would be more stable, but I do think they'd be less predictive. Tough problem.
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Postby Jonathan » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:26 pm

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Postby Alan » Sat Oct 09, 2004 1:28 am

Dere's rumors in dem dere "Internets"!
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Postby Alan » Sat Oct 09, 2004 1:39 am

Yeah, those Canadian drug companies, always looking for ways to kill people.
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Postby skanks » Sat Oct 09, 2004 1:59 am

whoa. Bush's style is really going to win over the 15 year-old demographic.
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Postby Alan » Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:29 am

Wow, Bush is seriously stalling about providing an example of being wrong. He refuses to admit fault for anything.

Beyond stalling now. He's just ignoring the question and repeating why invading Iraq was right. The lady who asked the question is pissed because he didn't answer it. Haha.
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Postby Alan » Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:57 am

I think it was pretty even. But Kerry needed to do better than pretty even.
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Postby Alan » Sat Oct 09, 2004 3:01 am

Wolf Blitzer has got to be one of the coolest names in the world.
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Postby skanks » Sat Oct 09, 2004 6:31 am

I think it was pretty even. But Kerry needed to do better than pretty even.


Even if I were to accept Bush's obnoxious shouting, lying, and condescenion constituted an "even" performance, I would say that Kerry doesn't need to do better than he did (although I would have preferred it that way). Kerry's ahead in the polls -- his post debate bounce was much larger than anticipated. Bush has lost his mythology and, barring the extraordinary, there's no way he can gain it back in one month. The economy isn't going to miraculously recover. There isn't going to be a surge of good news from Iraq. The only thing Bush can hope for is that the bloodshed during the Afghanistan election is kept low enough that they can spin it as a victory.

Kerry still has the momentum, he's got the grassroots efforts, he's got unprecidented voter registration in battleground states and he has an energized base. Right now, the election is Kerry's to win or lose. He'll be fine as long as he keeps kicking.
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Postby Peijen » Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:07 pm

Kerry 228 Bush 291

nooooooooooooooooooooo
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Postby Alan » Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:31 am

Kerry totally reamed Bush.

Bush looked like he just wanted to leave halfway through the debate.

And on one response, he started talking about trusting the media or something and was like, "Uh, nevermind."

NEVERMIND???

HAhahahAHAHHHhhaHAhAA
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Postby skanks » Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:52 am

the thing I noticed, before I got fed up with Bush's smug-as-shit smile, was that Kerry tends to cite facts or sources. Bush tends to just issue flat denials. like "I don't know what my opponent is talking about," or "of course we're doing everything to [create jobs,stop terrorists, etc]." And even though I acknowledge that Kerry has a sallow mug and I tire of hearing his stock speaking points, I felt he was being honest. Bush's administration record with the American people is so tarnished that I think a lot of people are going to have a hard time taking Bush's flat denials very seriously. Plus Bush just seems really stupid. still.

Alan's guess is probably better than mine concerning "who won". Most people aren't nearly as familiar with the facts as I to determine precisely where Bush is being very slippery and dishonest. But for what its worth, I think Kerry's grumpy-but-earnest mug beats Bush's bullshit smile and phony optimism hands-down.
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Postby Dave » Thu Oct 14, 2004 12:58 pm

bush just looks dumb. ever since i saw that pic of Bush next to a monkey, with the exact same expression on their faces, things just havent been the same.
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