2004 Presidential election

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Peijen
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Post by Peijen »

woo I might actually make a difference. GoGo Kerry.

If Kerry did well tonight it would probably be over for Bush. No WMD, bombing of hotel in Iraq, less than expected job gain, higher oil price.

The only problem is that Bush is quite strong in the states he held, while Kerry's lead is not as strong in most states. In fact I think Kerry's weakly and barely favorable states has increased and strongly favorable states decreased. Also Maine and Nebraska are not all or nothing state and that work againt Kerry at this point.

quantus
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Post by quantus »

Dammit, Neal needs to get people in NM to vote for Kerry. If PA switches to Bush, it could quickly become Bush's election too :(

Oh, you should always link to today's date at electorvote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.html
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quantus
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Post by quantus »

I find it hard to believe that 5% of the people in AK, MI and WI changed their votes.

Dave needs to somehow persuade people in FL to vote for Kerry as well. He should also tell us if they mess up the ballot again.

Anyone hear about how MI screwed up their absentee ballot? They needed to reissue it.

Editted fix for Dave being in FL, not Peijen
Last edited by quantus on Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jonathan
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Post by Jonathan »

FL is Dave's job.

Numerous people have attacked the pollsters for their "likely voter" methodology, particularly Gallup. They claim that Gallup's method of weeding out unlikely voters is biased and evil and bad and makes your hair fall out. Or something to that effect.

Anyway, when there are large sudden swings, usually it's due to changes in the likely voter status of certain classes of respondents. If we only looked at registered voters, the numbers would be more stable, but I do think they'd be less predictive. Tough problem.

Jonathan
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Post by Jonathan »


Alan
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Post by Alan »

Dere's rumors in dem dere "Internets"!
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Alan
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Post by Alan »

Yeah, those Canadian drug companies, always looking for ways to kill people.
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skanks
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Post by skanks »

whoa. Bush's style is really going to win over the 15 year-old demographic.

Alan
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Post by Alan »

Wow, Bush is seriously stalling about providing an example of being wrong. He refuses to admit fault for anything.

Beyond stalling now. He's just ignoring the question and repeating why invading Iraq was right. The lady who asked the question is pissed because he didn't answer it. Haha.
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Alan
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Post by Alan »

I think it was pretty even. But Kerry needed to do better than pretty even.
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Alan
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Post by Alan »

Wolf Blitzer has got to be one of the coolest names in the world.
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skanks
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Post by skanks »

I think it was pretty even. But Kerry needed to do better than pretty even.
Even if I were to accept Bush's obnoxious shouting, lying, and condescenion constituted an "even" performance, I would say that Kerry doesn't need to do better than he did (although I would have preferred it that way). Kerry's ahead in the polls -- his post debate bounce was much larger than anticipated. Bush has lost his mythology and, barring the extraordinary, there's no way he can gain it back in one month. The economy isn't going to miraculously recover. There isn't going to be a surge of good news from Iraq. The only thing Bush can hope for is that the bloodshed during the Afghanistan election is kept low enough that they can spin it as a victory.

Kerry still has the momentum, he's got the grassroots efforts, he's got unprecidented voter registration in battleground states and he has an energized base. Right now, the election is Kerry's to win or lose. He'll be fine as long as he keeps kicking.

Peijen
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Post by Peijen »

Kerry 228 Bush 291
nooooooooooooooooooooo

Alan
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Post by Alan »

Kerry totally reamed Bush.

Bush looked like he just wanted to leave halfway through the debate.

And on one response, he started talking about trusting the media or something and was like, "Uh, nevermind."

NEVERMIND???

HAhahahAHAHHHhhaHAhAA
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skanks
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Post by skanks »

the thing I noticed, before I got fed up with Bush's smug-as-shit smile, was that Kerry tends to cite facts or sources. Bush tends to just issue flat denials. like "I don't know what my opponent is talking about," or "of course we're doing everything to [create jobs,stop terrorists, etc]." And even though I acknowledge that Kerry has a sallow mug and I tire of hearing his stock speaking points, I felt he was being honest. Bush's administration record with the American people is so tarnished that I think a lot of people are going to have a hard time taking Bush's flat denials very seriously. Plus Bush just seems really stupid. still.

Alan's guess is probably better than mine concerning "who won". Most people aren't nearly as familiar with the facts as I to determine precisely where Bush is being very slippery and dishonest. But for what its worth, I think Kerry's grumpy-but-earnest mug beats Bush's bullshit smile and phony optimism hands-down.

Dave
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Post by Dave »

bush just looks dumb. ever since i saw that pic of Bush next to a monkey, with the exact same expression on their faces, things just havent been the same.
It takes 43 muscles to frown and 17 to smile, but it doesn't take any to just sit there with a dumb look on your face.

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